ROME, Italy — As the world’s Catholic cardinals prepare for the solemn and secretive task of electing a new pope following the death of Pope Francis, an unexpected phenomenon is gaining traction outside the hallowed halls of the Vatican: betting on who will become the next pontiff.
While cardinals gathered at St. Peter’s Basilica on Wednesday, April 30, for the fifth day of mourning, thousands around the world were placing wagers on who will be chosen to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. From fantasy-style online games to real money bets, the global interest in predicting the next pope is rising fast.
“It’s unlike anything we’ve seen,” said Sam Eaton, U.K. manager for Oddschecker, a leading odds comparison site. “The conclave betting market has attracted users from over 140 countries. It’s even drawing more engagement than some major sporting events.”
In the United Kingdom alone, bettors have already staked around £30,000 (nearly $40,000) on various papal contenders. Though modest compared to the £1.2 million wagered on Eurovision, industry insiders say the scale of interest is unprecedented for a non-sporting event.
Fantasy Papal Leagues and Friendly Wagers
In countries like Italy, where gambling on religious events is prohibited, enthusiasm has taken a different form. Over 60,000 users have joined Fantapapa (Fantasy Pope), an online game modeled after fantasy football. Players select 11 cardinals to form their “team” and choose a captain they believe has the best chance of being elected.
“It started as a joke from my dad, but now I’m really into it,” said Federico La Rocca, a 23-year-old student from Rome. His pick? Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. “He just seems like a fun guy,” La Rocca added.
The game’s creators, Mauro Vanetti and his co-founder, emphasize that Fantapapa is not a gambling platform but a satirical and playful way to engage with the tradition-bound process. “We wanted to embrace Italy’s critical curiosity towards the Church hierarchy in a lighthearted way,” Vanetti said. “It’s a way to deflate the solemnity without being disrespectful.”
Growing Concerns Over Gambling Trends
Despite the entertainment value for many participants, some experts are raising concerns about the normalization of betting culture, especially when it involves religious matters. In the U.S., where legal betting on papal outcomes is not permitted, some unregulated platforms have reported as much as $10 million in wagers.
Catholic teaching does not explicitly condemn gambling, but the Catechism warns of its potential dangers. It becomes “morally unacceptable,” the Church states, when it deprives individuals of their livelihood or becomes addictive.
Anti-gambling advocates also note rising signs of problem behavior, particularly among young men. A 2024 U.S. study found that 1 in 10 men under 30 exhibit signs of gambling addiction — a trend mirrored in other parts of the world.
Still, as the conclave draws nearer, more people — from casual observers to serious gamblers — are tuning in, with their picks ready and predictions locked in.
“The jackpot may be eternal glory,” joked Vanetti. “But for most, it’s just about joining in on a historic moment — with a little fun on the side.”
